The dust has settled. It’s time for the stretch run.
Here comes the fun part of the season. Every club has between 26 and 30 games remaining in this 7 1/2-week sprint to the April 13 finish line, play resuming Wednesday when Charlotte faces the Lakers. And teams will point to recent history as proof that just getting into the playoffs means anything can happen: No. 5, No. 6, No. 7 and No. 8 seeds have made their way to the conference finals in the last two years alone.
“I’m looking forward to the challenge,” said the Warriors’ Stephen Curry, the now two-time All-Star Game MVP. “It’s basically a playoff game every single night, and that usually brings the best out of you.”
Some teams can go ahead and start planning for the playoffs.
Oklahoma City and Cleveland are both 44-10, tied for the best record in the league. Defending champion Boston, currently No. 2 in the Eastern Conference, remains on pace to obliterate league records for 3-pointers made and attempted in a season. The Celtics, New York, Denver, Houston and the Lakers all have winning percentages over .600, which is an excellent sign — 132 of the last 133 teams to reach the break with such a record have wound up making the postseason.
“We have obviously a pretty good basketball team,” said Oklahoma City All-Star guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the current MVP favorite according to BetMGM Sportsbook. “We have a little bit more experience. We have an opportunity to, for sure, win an NBA championship. Now we’re going to have to earn it.”
Then there’s the other end of the spectrum, that being the teams that are out of the mix.
Over the last 20 seasons, 98.8% of the teams that have winning percentages under .400 at the break wind up missing the playoffs. If that form holds, that eliminates Philadelphia, Brooklyn, Toronto, Charlotte, Utah, New Orleans and Washington.
So, based on the numbers, that means seven teams are in, seven teams are out, and 16 teams remain in the middle fighting for what will be the last nine playoff spots — five to be clinched on or before the end of the regular season on April 13, four others to be won in the play-in tournament later that week.
“The last 25 to 30 games are really important for everyone,” said Miami guard Tyler Herro, the league’s new 3-point shootout champion. “We’ve got a new group, in a sense, and we’re going to hit the ground running. It’s going to happen fast. Everything is going to matter throughout this next month and a half.”
The Heat traded Butler to the Warriors, getting back Andrew Wiggins in return. San Antonio landed De’Aaron Fox from Sacramento, and the Los Angeles Clippers — who have barely had Kawhi Leonard available this season, but he’s playing now — figure they’re right in the mix to challenge as well.
“I think we got a really good chance,” Clippers All-Star guard James Harden said. “We added some shooting, we added some defense and obviously with a healthy Kawhi we’ve got a chance to compete with anybody. So, I think for us, it’s just finding out how we want to play and attacking it.”
Milwaukee added Kyle Kuzma, moving Khris Middleton — a Bucks mainstay for years — to Washington in that deal. And Phoenix didn’t trade Kevin Durant, which is a sign that the Suns are hoping their star trio of him, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal can make a push.
“We’re all figuring it out, man,” Durant said. “We’ve got 28, 29 games to go to figure it out. That’s the fun part, trying to figure out how to get out of a slump.”
Davis’ injury obviously isn’t great for Dallas, especially with it compounded by a rash of other injuries to the Mavericks’ big-man corps. Doncic is still working his way back into form after a calf issue, so he and James will still likely need some time to figure out the best way for this new star duo to work. Butler went to the Warriors with hopes of being the jolt that gets Curry, Draymond Green and coach Steve Kerr back to title contention.
But a lot of teams have hope. And they all know that now’s the time to make a move. Let the stretch run begin.
“I think, 27 games or so left to make a push,” Curry said. “All we want is just to get into a playoff series and have a fighting chance to be a tough out against anybody in the West, and we have a good opportunity in front of us to do that.”
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