Commentary: On North Korea, Trump once again divides the GOP

First it was tariffs. Now it’s talks with North Korea’s dictator. For people predicting Donald Trump would be a different kind of Republican president, that moment may have finally arrived.

After a year of fairly traditional Republican policies—albeit wrapped in a cloud of Trumpian chaos—President Trump has made two high-profile policy moves that aren’t sitting well with many in his own party.  In the past, Republicans have complained about the roller-coaster ride that is the Trump presidency, but they have generally found it ended up in establishment GOP territory: Tax cuts, a willingness to use military force (in Syria and Afghanistan), looking for compromises on immigration, etc.

On Thursday, President Trump took two major steps away from GOP orthodoxy: He imposed massive tariffs on steel and aluminum; and he announced he is willing to meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un without significant pre-conditions. 

“Kim Jong Un talked about denuclearization with the South Korean Representatives, not just a freeze,” Trump tweeted Thursday night. “Also, no missile testing by North Korea during this period of time. Great progress being made but sanctions will remain until an agreement is reached. Meeting being planned!”

Imagine the response from the Right if President Obama—or Hillary Clinton—had made such a declaration, based on nothing more than assurances from the notoriously untrustworthy Kim regime of a temporary halt to nuclear and missile testing.

But instead of a wholesale rejection of Trump’s approach, the GOP finds itself once again divided by the policies of its own president.

“The North Korean racket for decades now has been to offer talks in exchange for bribes or other advantages. Then we pay them, and make an agreement, and when they cheat it all breaks down- until the next time. I hope we are not about to fall into their trap yet again.”  That was the reaction from former Reagan and George W. Bush foreign policy adviser Elliott Abrams. “Talking to Kim Jong Un is worthless unless he acts first to show that this is not just another swindle,” he said.

Longtime Korea watcher Elliott Epstein at the conservative Weekly Standard agreed: “I suspect that in the long run it’s a move to buy time. This is not a regime that’s ever going to denuclearize. But I think they’re worried about the potential for a preemptive strike, they’re worried about the sanctions and a meeting with Trump is something that could probably run the clock out.” 

But other Republicans were more open to the idea. Sen. Lindsey Graham sent out a statement: “After numerous discussions with President Trump, I firmly believe his strong stand against North Korea and its nuclear aggression gives us the best hope in decades to resolve this threat peacefully.”

Some on the Right are arguing that Kim’s willingness to meet with the U.S. president he denounced as a “dotard” and “a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire” is evidence that Trump’s policies are working. 

“The administration’s maximum pressure campaign and rhetoric may be yielding results,” said Mark Dubowitz of the right-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. “The Trump administration should continue using the toughest sanctions to maintain maximum pressure before the summit in May.”

Ed Royce, R-California, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee agrees. “Kim Jong Un’s desire to talk shows sanctions the administration has implemented are starting to work.”

Still, the consensus is that the Kim regime will never give up its nuclear program because the North sees it as the only way to ensure it holds onto power. 

“The regime has made the strategic decision that the only way Kim is going to be able to remain in power is to become a nuclear power,” Epstein said.  “They saw what happened to Saddam [Hussein] and what happened to Gaddafi, and they came to the–to be frank–correct strategic conclusion that only nukes would let them survive.”  

Does President Trump really believe they’ll negotiate their survival away?  If he does, not many Republicans—or Korea watchers—agree.

Then there’s the Trump factor.  Will this meeting actually happen? Or will Mr. Trump pull yet another reality TV plot twist?  Given his track record, Republicans in Congress may understandably be reluctant to get out too far ahead of developments.

And if the meeting does happen, how will the president handle it?  From Donald Trump’s early morning tweeting to the possibility Kim Jong Un could do something provocative while Trump is on the Korean peninsula — there is clearly a lot of political risk.  How close do Republicans want to be standing to him when Mr. Trump throws this foreign-policy “Hail Mary?”

It’s hard to imagine another Republican president who would take the political gamble this high-stakes meeting entails. And that may explain why Republicans are struggling to find the right way to react.