BLOG: Robby’s Keys to Victory for Mississippi State in the Women’s Final Four vs. UConn

The day of reckoning has arrived.

Say what you will about the match-up, the records, the seeds, whatever. Throw that all out the window. When Mississippi State and UConn step on the floor here at American Airlines Center Friday night, it will be about 40 minutes of basketball. That’s it.

Seems simple, yet of course there is much more to this Final Four matchup.

I’ve found five keys to victory for Mississippi State if they want a shot at defeating the Goliath of women’s college basketball. Yes, MSU will have to play a near perfect game and will need UConn to play less than perfect. But, there are spots that HailState Hoops will look to exploit on this Huskies team.

Let’s run through them.

#1 – Rebounding
This may be the biggest key to victory for MSU out of everything I will run through here. 32 of UConn’s 36 victories this season have come when the Huskies have out-rebounded their opponents. While UConn isn’t one of the leaders in the nation when it comes to offensive rebounding, that’s the area of their game which is often overlooked.

The Huskies are able to rebound 46% of their misses on the offensive end this season, something that is almost unheard of in basketball. So nearly half of UConn’s shots attempted are rebounded by the Huskies. That’s why this is Key to Victory #1 for Mississippi State.

If the Bulldogs want any chance of winning, they have to keep the Huskies off the boards. Just 5 times this season has UConn been out-rebounded or tied their opponent in total rebounds. In 4 of those instances, UConn’s margin of victory on average was 9 points.

MSU is a decent rebounding team, but they’ve turned it on these last 4 NCAA Tourney games which has proven to be a big addition. The Bulldogs have averaged 19 offensive rebounds in this year’s NCAA Tournament and just went up against the best rebounding team in the country in Baylor last weekend. For MSU to win, they must out-rebound UConn or stay with them board for board.

#2 – Transition & turnovers
When UConn wins comfortably, it’s when they get out in transition and get easy buckets off of turnovers.

In the Huskies’ four close wins over the last month (UCLA, UCF, Tulane and South Carolina), their opponents have held their turnover figures to 17 or less. In the process, UConn has only outscored their opponents in those games in terms of points off of turnovers 17 to 12. In comparison, in UConn’s last five lopsided wins they’ve outscored their opponents on average 27 to 7 in points off of turnovers.

In transition, UConn out-scored those 4 opponents in fast break points 10 to 5. When Tulane nearly pulled off the upset of the year, the Green Wave played a half court game where four total fast break points were scored.

MSU was brilliant in their win over Baylor in the Oklahoma City regional final, as State turned the ball over just 4 times in the win over the Lady Bears and held Baylor to eight fast break points.

To beat UConn, Mississippi State will need to limit UConn getting out in transition and also letting turnovers turn into easy baskets off the break.

#3 – Shooting
Seems pretty basic but when Mississippi State hits shots, they win. When UConn keeps their opponent from making shots, they cruise.

When the Bulldogs shoot 45% + from the field, Mississippi State is 17-1 this season. More so, MSU’s magic number from the field is probably 40% +. That’s the sweet spot State has been shooting in their 4 NCAA Tournament wins. Compare that with their last 2 losses to SEC teams, they shot 35% from the floor.

UConn can shoot poorly and still find ways to win because of their suffocating defense and ability on the boards. But if MSU can hold the Huskies to below 50% from the field, that would be ideal. UConn has won 14 of their 36 games this season when they shoot below 50%.

The one game where UConn shot below 40% this season? You guessed it, the Tulane game where the Huskies managed a 3 point win over the Green Wave.

#4 – Foul Trouble
This may be the bonus/x-factor to the keys to victory for Mississippi State because not many have been able to attack UConn and force them to use their bench.

The Huskies are currently second in the country in fouls committed per game. How they do that plus hold opponents to under 40% shooting from the field on a consistent basis is beyond me, but that’s just how good UConn is overall.

If there is one area of this UConn team that has been somewhat scrutinized it is their depth. Geno Auriemma’s five starters average 29 minutes per game. That doesn’t leave much for the bench as just two players, Molly Bent and Crystal Dangerfield, log 9+ minutes for UConn coming off the pine.

Want to guess the game where UConn dealt with foul trouble? Yep, Tulane. Saniya Chong and Napheesa Collier dealt with four fouls during most of the 4th quarter. That’s two key cogs to the UConn machine.

While it may not seem ideal, the Bulldogs must attack the UConn defense and attempt to get to the free throw line. Tulane didn’t have many shooting fouls, but they did single out those players that were in foul trouble in the 2nd half which helped them keep the game close at the end and have a chance to win.

#5 – Fear
This is the one key to victory that has no stats to accompany them.

We’ve spoken to Mississippi State players all week and they’ve continued to reiterate that they are not scared of UConn. You could say that wasn’t the case last year.

UConn’s fear factor ultimately gives them a 20-point advantage when they step off of the bus. They are already the most talented basketball team in the country, but opponents already fear what they have to deal with when facing the Huskies when the ball tips off.

For MSU to win, they have to keep it an even game and keep it close early and not be scared of what the Huskies throw at them.

UConn frequently takes advantage of fast starts due to their intensity and focus off the opening tip. MSU had a sizable early deficit against Baylor but was able to fight back in the Regional Final win last weekend. They won’t be as fortunate if they get down 7+ within the first few minutes against the Huskies.
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It seems fairly self-explanatory when writing it down here, but it will undoubtedly be a near impossible task for Mississippi State to check off all 5 of these keys to victory I’ve listed for tonight.

The top two are most important for MSU to give themselves an opportunity to win but the other three need to be close to swinging the Bulldogs’ way to have a shot at the Huskies.

I’m sure Vic Schaefer will give a rousing pre-game speech to get his team focused and ready to play. All I can envision is Gene Hackman in “Hoosiers” as head coach Norman Dale of the Hickory Huskers. If Schaefer’s pre-game talk is anything like this, then I expect Mississippi State to have a great shot to beat UConn.

Tonight, we could be watching history unfold right before our very own eyes. Basketball can be a crazy game. Anything can happen when you believe, and Mississippi State believes they can do it. That’s the first major hurdle to clear. We’ll see what happens. See you at the game.