BLOG: Robby’s Keys to Victory for Mississippi State in National Title vs. South Carolina

One more.

That’s been the mindset all season long for Mississippi State as the Bulldogs have gone through the toughest road to get to this year’s National Title game in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament. They are more prepared than anyone to finish off one of the great seasons in Mississippi sports history.

Tonight, it all comes down to one game and how appropriate that South Carolina stands in the way of Vic Schaefer and the Bulldogs?

The Gamecocks have been the class of the SEC in the last four seasons, which also happens to coincide with the rise of Mississippi State’s women’s basketball program under Schaefer.

If there was ever a time to silence the doubters and finish off an unprecedented run, it would be this game against this team for HailState Hoops.

I’ve narrowed down five keys to victory for Mississippi State if they want to finish off this season with a Title against South Carolina. Many of these will be centered around what Mississippi State must do defensively as I believe that’s where the key to victory overall lies with HailState Hoops. Here’s what the Bulldogs must do to raise the trophy at the end of the evening.

#1 –  Protect The Paint
Seems easy enough when you have Teaira McCowan and Chinwe Okorie, but South Carolina still wants to hit the paint hard with their post players and get easy buckets near the rim.

Since the injury of Alaina Coates, the Gamecocks have changed how they play but it all still goes through their ability to beat you off the bounce and get easy hoops for A’ja Wilson inside.

Wilson will get her fill of points, but Mississippi State has to limit easy shots for South Carolina. The Gamecocks are 22-0 when leading their opponent in fast break points, and most of those points have come in the paint. In the four games South Carolina has lost this year, they’ve been held to 32 points or less in the lane.

To beat South Carolina, you have to limit the Gamecocks’ easy looks inside and force them to take contested jumpers. When you force South Carolina into being a jump-shooting team, that’s when you have the best chance to beat them. Their most recent loss to Missouri, USC was 3-18 from 3-point range. When Carolina attempts less than 15 3’s, they’re 19-1. When they take 15 or more from the perimeter, they’re 13-3. That’s less wins and more losses. That’s why this is No. 1 on my keys to victory.

#2 – Defend Without Fouling
South Carolina has seemed to live at the foul line in tight games that they’ve found ways to win.

When making more free throws than their opponent, South Carolina is 26-2 this season. Their probability of winning goes down significantly when they equal or do worse in made free throws than their opponent as the Gamecocks are just 6-2 when that occurs.

Against UConn, the Huskies did manage to take advantage late with free throws against Mississippi State but the Bulldogs hit key shots down the stretch.

That goes back to protecting the paint, key No. 1. If MSU can defend the paint without fouling and keep South Carolina off the charity stripe, that will almost certainly put Mississippi State in a prime position to win.

#3 – Limit Second (even third) Scorers
It’s almost a guarantee that A’ja Wilson is going to get her fill.

The big-time post player averages nearly 18 a game and hasn’t scored less than double digits in the month of March. You obviously don’t want her to go for 30 or anything like that, but you don’t want someone else going off.

In 3 of South Carolina’s 4 losses, Wilson has led the Gamecocks in points. In 5 of South Carolina’s last 6 games, Wilson hasn’t led the Gamecocks in points and Carolina has won each of those games by 7 points or more. That includes back on March 5th when Mississippi State was drilled by Kaela Davis and her 23 points in the 59-49 loss to the Gamecocks in the SEC Tournament Title game.

Holding Allisha Gray, Kaela Davis and Bianca Cuevas-Moore in check from the perimeter is paramount. Davis and Gray especially, as those two have been what has taken the Gamecocks over the top in close contests against Stanford and Florida State over the last week.

Without Alaina Coates, South Carolina wants to run a little more and look for easy buckets. Gray and Davis live off those baskets in close and that’s how they get into a rhythm. When they’re in a rhythm, like we saw Davis against MSU in the SEC Title game, they can be lethal.

#4 – Second Chance Points & Shooting*
Carolina lives off of cleaning up their missed shots and getting second looks, so much so it’s a guarantee Dawn Staley’s team will win when they do so.

When South Carolina scores more second chance points than their opponent, the Gamecocks are 21-0 this season. A’ja Wilson was an offensive rebounding machine in their victory over Stanford in the Final Four, as she hauled in 8 offensive boards to go along with 19 total for the game.

Leading the Gamecocks in 2nd chance points though isn’t a guarantee that you will win. Mississippi State crushed Carolina in 2nd chance points, 13-2 in the SEC Tournament Title game and still managed to lose. That’s where the asterisk you see the top comes into play. Even when out-scoring Carolina in 2nd chance points, you need one more aspect to secure this as a victory.

For Mississippi State, that’s when the Bulldogs hold opponents to 45% or worse shooting. When MSU does that, the Bulldogs are 26-1 this season when holding opponents to 45% or worse from the field. They were able to keep UConn under that magic 45% mark and they will need to do the same against South Carolina.

When Carolina struggles to shoot, they will look to crash the glass to clean up their misses. So this is a two-pronged key to victory: force Carolina to miss shots, and keep them from getting their own rebounds with second looks.

#5 – The UConn Hangover
The last four teams to defeat UConn in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament lost their next game.

It almost feels like the Huskies are the Alabama of women’s college hoops. Teams that find a way to defeat Alabama or play close with the Crimson Tide in college football run into a wall the next game or lose steam down the stretch of games.

The only team to defeat UConn since the turn of the century in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament and win the National Championship was Notre Dame in 2001.

If there was ever a team that had the cure of the UConn hangover to win a National Championship, it would be this Mississippi State team.

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While these “Keys to Victory” are important for Mississippi State to defeat South Carolina, this isn’t a case where the Bulldogs have to check off all five to win like UConn.

Truly, if Mississippi State can play the way they are capable of playing and have the intensity from the start like they did against UConn, the Bulldogs will be crowned National Champions.

It all comes down to this. Buckle up for a wild night of basketball.

There’s just One more.