BLOG: Robby’s Keys to Victory for Mississippi State vs. Louisville in Women’s Final Four

And we’re back.

Mississippi State has returned to the Women’s Final Four and the Bulldogs once again face a No. 1 seed in their National Semifinal game. While Louisville isn’t UConn, the Cardinals still boast a strong team that has a bonafide superstar at guard.

Louisville’s No. 25 Asia Durr is a scoring phenom, averaging 18.7 points per game but has the potential to go off for even more on any given night.

But for HailState Hoops to defeat the Cardinals, it’s more than just slowing down one player. Here’s my five keys to victory for the Bulldogs to defeat Louisville on Friday night here in Columbus, Ohio:

1. Limit Louisville’s second unit
– When head coach Jeff Wulz has his bench out-score their opponent’s bench, the Cardinals are (24-0) this season. Automatically, that’s a red flag for Mississippi State due to the fact that the majority of the Bulldogs scoring comes from their starting five. For MSU, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that their bench will be outscored as it has for most of their games this season. What the Bulldogs must do is limit Louisville’s second unit from providing a wave of energy coming off the bench as the Cardinals have had won five games this season when they have trailed at the half. It’s a 40 minute game and Louisville will go on runs but MSU must keep Louisville from gaining momentum when their bench players check in.

2. MSU must shoot ABOVE 45%
– For the Bulldogs offensively, they are going up against a Louisville defense that is stout and ranks as one of the top 25 scoring defenses in the country. For Mississippi State, the Bulldogs are undoubtedly a better team when they get transition three’s and find open shooters on the perimeter. Since Vic Schaefer arrived in Starkville, MSU is (70-5) when they shoot 45% or better from the field. Coincidentally, Louisville has not allowed a team to shoot better than 50% from the field all season. If MSU is going to take out the Cardinals, they will need a strong offensive shooting performance. If the Bulldogs struggle to shoot from the field, they may fall into a hole where they are (20-27) shooting below 45% in the last six years. And MSU’s lone loss of the season came during one of their worst shooting performances of the year when they shot 34% from the field vs. South Carolina in the SEC Tournament.

3. Value the basketball
– Amongst the many statistics that could slant in the direction of Mississippi State is the turnover margin. The Bulldogs are 3rd in the country in turnovers per game while Louisville is 62nd in all of college basketball. But even more important is FORCING turnovers for MSU. Louisville has won just 10 of their 12 games this season in which they turn the ball over MORE than their opponent. If there’s an area of Louisville’s game to exploit it is the turnover margin as the Cardinals are outside the Top 50 in college hoops in that statistic, one of the few areas where they don’t rank in the Top 50.

4. Run Louisville off the perimeter
– The two lone losses of the season from Louisville came when the Cardinals made less than seven triples. While Louisville isn’t as proficient shooting from the perimeter as Mississippi State, the Cardinals are still 14th in the country in 3-point shooting percentage. And when the Cardinals make seven or more threes in a game, they’re (13-0). Yes, they have more wins when they make less from the outside but it’s a done deal when Louisville gets going from behind the arc.

5. Asia Durr will get hers to an extent, make sure the rest (especially Myisha Hines-Allen) do not.
– Asia Durr is one of the most proficient scorers in all of women’s college basketball. She’s going to get her points. Scorers score in big games and Durr’s points per game average jumps to 22 points per game in match-ups against ranked teams. For Louisville, it’s when they get balance from their other top scorers including forward Myisha Hines-Allen that they become unstoppable. In all four blowout wins from the NCAA Tournament thus far, Louisville has had four players score in double figures in each of those victories. In my opinion, the player that presents the biggest match-up problem is Hines-Allen. She stands 6’2 and can play with her back to the basket. She’s not a threat from the perimeter but for Victoria Vivians, she’ll have to play without fouling but also keep Hines-Allen off the boards in the process. While this is Key No. 5, this one may be the one to follow closely as Louisville typically goes as their second & third scoring options go.

Certainly, this Mississippi State team is good enough to where they can play their game and feel good about their chances to win but this is probably their toughest match-up and game of the season. It’s been one game at a time on the road to a National Championship and it only get tougher from here. Tip-off is at 6:00pm CT on ESPN2. Enjoy the game!